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Delegate Allocation Proposal


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To make Bruce's (and our) lives a little simpler, I'd like to suggest that we adopt a standardized rule for delegate allocation:

-In the pre-Super Tuesday states, have a 10% threshold.

-From Super Tuesday onwards, have a 15% threshold, but any candidate with a majority of the vote gets Winner Take All.

This feels a bit less maddening than everyone having different rules.

Thoughts?

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Andrew Byrd (and family), Virginia

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On 3/3/2022 at 2:16 PM, Steven Andrews said:

To make Bruce's (and our) lives a little simpler, I'd like to suggest that we adopt a standardized rule for delegate allocation:

-In the pre-Super Tuesday states, have a 10% threshold.

-From Super Tuesday onwards, have a 15% threshold, but any candidate with a majority of the vote gets Winner Take All.

This feels a bit less maddening than everyone having different rules.

Thoughts?

Representatives from the Liz Cheney and Tucker Carlson campaigns note openness to this, but only if the pre-Super Tuesday states do not have any threshold but are completely proportional. 

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1 hour ago, TexAgRepublican said:

This is a big departure from previous elections no?

(Not necessarily opposed just need time to think it over)

Sort-of.  The previous processes have been a mix-and-match of Winner-Take-All, Proportional (with varying thresholds, including some states with none), and Proportional with WTA if somebody hits 50%.  At best it's been a bit of a pain to keep track of and there's not a lot of rhyme or reason to why different states are one vs another.

Andrew Byrd (and family), Virginia

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3 hours ago, TexAgRepublican said:

@Bruce what would the alternative to this be? 

Here's the default: 

State
Democrats Republicans
Delegates Threshold Delegates Threshold
Alabama 60 15% 50 20%
Alaska 20 15% 28 13%
Arizona 85 15% 58 WTA
Arkansas 37 15% 40 15%
California 548 15% 172 15%
Colorado 78 15% 37 Proportional
Connecticut 71 15% 28 WTA
Delaware 31 15% 16 WTA
DC 46 15% 19 15%
Florida 246 15% 99 WTA
Georgia 117 15% 76 20%
Hawaii 34 15% 19 Proportional
Idaho 27 15% 32 20%
Illinois 182 15% 69 WTA
Indiana 92 15% 57 WTA
Iowa 52 15% 30 Proportional
Kansas 37 15% 40 10%
Kentucky 60 15% 46 5%
Louisiana 59 15% 46 20%
Maine 30 15% 23 10%
Maryland 118 15% 38 WTA
Massachusetts 116 15% 42 5%
Michigan 147 15% 59 15%
Minnesota 93 15% 38 10%
Mississippi 41 15% 40 15%
Missouri 84 15% 52 WTA
Montana 27 15% 27 WTA
Nebraska 30 15% 36 WTA
Nevada 43 15% 30 Proportional
New Hampshire 32 15% 23 10%
New Jersey 142 15% 51 WTA
New Mexico 43 15% 24 15%
New York 291 15% 95 20%
North Carolina 121 15% 72 Proportional
North Dakota 23 15% 28 Proportional
Ohio 160 15% 66 Proportional
Oklahoma 42 15% 43 15%
Oregon 74 15% 28 Proportional
Pennsylvania 210 15% 71 WTA
Rhode Island 33 15% 19 10%
South Carolina 59 15% 50 WTA
South Dakota 25 15% 29 WTA
Tennessee 75 15% 58 20%
Texas 251 15% 155 20%
Utah 37 15% 40 15%
Vermont 26 15% 16 20%
Virginia 109 15% 49 Proportional
Washington 118 15% 44 20%
West Virginia 37 15% 34 WTA
Wisconsin 96 15% 42 WTA
Wyoming 18 15% 29 Proportional
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3 hours ago, TexAgRepublican said:

Thanks @Bruce

Do you know what the order of states will be? Like what turn they will be on? 

This is the default, but I'd like to see the party customize everything (delegate count per state, threshold, schedule, etc). 

 

Turn 1: Iowa Straw Poll
Turn 2
Turn 3: Iowa
Turn 4: New Hampshire
Turn 5: South Carolina, Nevada
Turn 6: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming
Turn 7: Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi
Turn 8: DC, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio
Turn 9: Arizona, Utah, Wisconsin
Turn 10: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island
Turn 11: Indiana, Nebraska, Oregon, Washington, West Virginia
Turn 12: California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota

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So, in my proposal, under the calendar above IA, NH, SC, and NV would be either pure PR or have a 10% threshold (I'm fine with pure PR).  The rest would have a 15% threshold, with winner take all at 50%+.

===== ===== ===== ===== =====

I'll set the calendar aside for a moment (since we only just got prompted on that).  As far as delegates go, I'd like to suggest that we consider the following:
-3 delegates per Electoral Vote (so 3 per district and 6 statewide).  Puerto Rico, if thrown in, would be treated as having 4 CDs.  The other territories would be given a flat 6 delegates apiece (owing to their extremely small size...the four, combined, only have just under 350k people).
Bonuses:
+10% for voting GOP in the most recent Presidential election (e.g. 2020)
+5% for voting GOP in the second-most-recent Presidential election (e.g. 2016)
+5% for voting GOP in the third-most-recent Presidential election (e.g. 2012)
+10% for having a GOP Senator (this would normally be 5% per, but we only have one Senator per state, so...).
+10% for going after Super Tuesday (i.e. Turn 7 or later).

This avoids having to dig out questions of state Governors, legislatures, and House delegations.  Normally I'd add another 5-10% for a Governor, and one per Congressman, but I don't want to add that to Bruce's shoulders.

Andrew Byrd (and family), Virginia

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