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Alaska Senate Primary

Incumbent Lisa Murkowski is facing a strong challenge from the right in the form of Trump-endorsed Congresswoman Holly Hawthorne. This is shaping up to be a key test of whether establishment Republicans will be able to recapture the party from the nationalist wing. 

Total %
Murkowski 57%
Hawthorne 41%
Others 2%

 

@Brady

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Ohio Senate Primary

Congressman Mike Turner (Moderate Conservative) and former Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel (Nationalist) are competing to replace retiring Ohio Senator Rob Portman. Mandel has been leading in the polls since the beginning of the race, though Turner is beginning to narrow as he consolidates the moderate vote. 

Total %
Turner 47%
Mandel 50%
Others 3%

 

However, it appears that the Democratic challenger would rather face Josh Mandel.

Total %
Turner 51%
Ryan 47%
Generic I 2%

 

Total %
Mandel 47%
Ryan 50%
Generic I 3%
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Maryland Senate

Former governor Larry Hogan (R) is giving Congressman Chris Van Hollen (D) a run for his money in this traditionally Democratic state. 

Total %
Hogan 45%
Van Hollen 54%
Generic I 1%
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Alaska Senate Primary

The race is receiving national attention, with Mitch McConnell recently donating $10m to Murkowski's warchest while Donald Trump sent $5m to Hawthorne. 

Alaska Republican Primary
  Nationalist Evangelical Business Moderate Conserv.
Murkowski 31% 47% 77% 87%
Hawthorne 68% 48% 20% 12%
Others 1% 5% 3% 1%

 

@Brady

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2022 Election Polls (August)

Arizona
McGuire 37%
Kelly 59%
Generic I 4%

 

 

Georgia
Kingston 44%
Warnock 53%
Generic I 3%

 

 

Nevada
Laxalt 35%
Cortez Masto 60%
Generic I 5%

 

 

Oregon
Skarlatos 34%
Wyden 64%
Generic I 2%

 

 

West Virginia
Fitzgerald 46%
Manchin 49%
Generic I 5%
 
 
 
 
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2022 Election Polls (September)

 

Arizona
McGuire 46%
Kelly 51%
Generic I 3%

 

Georgia
Kingston 42%
Warnock 54%
Generic I 4%

 

Maryland
Hogan 44%
Van Hollen 54%
Generic I 2%

 

Nevada
Laxalt 40%
Cortez Masto 58%
Generic I 2%

 

Ohio
Mandel 46%
Ryan 52%
Generic I 2%

 

 

Oregon
Skarlatos 50%
Wyden 49%
Generic I 1%

 

West Virginia
Fitzgerald 57%
Manchin 40%
Generic I 3%

 

Wisconsin
Walker 42%
Barnes 56%
Generic I 2%

 

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2022 Election Polls (Early October)

(Analysis in next post)

Arizona
McGuire 49%
Kelly 50%
Generic I 1%

 

Georgia
Kingston 43%
Warnock 56%
Generic I 1%

 

Maryland
Hogan 48%
Van Hollen 51%
Generic I 1%

 

Nevada
Laxalt 42%
Cortez Masto 56%
Generic I 2%

 

Ohio
Mandel 45%
Ryan 53%
Generic I 2%

 

Oregon
Skarlatos 52%
Wyden 47%
Generic I 1%

 

West Virginia
Fitzgerald 60%
Manchin 38%
Generic I 2%

 

Wisconsin
Walker 46%
Barnes 53%
Generic I 1%
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Republican Democrat Independent
6/10 (Fox) 7/1 (ANN) 8/31 (Fox) 9/10 (ANN) 9/30 (Fox) 10/7 (WaPo) 6/10 (Fox) 7/1 (ANN) 8/31 (Fox) 9/10 (ANN) 9/30 (Fox) 10/7 (WaPo) 6/10 (Fox) 7/1 (ANN) 8/31 (Fox) 9/10 (ANN) 9/30 (Fox) 10/7 (WaPo)
AZ     37% 42% 46% 49%     59% 56% 51% 50%     4% 2% 3% 1%
GA     44% 43% 42% 43%     53% 53% 54% 56%     3% 4% 4% 1%
MD 45%     43% 44% 48% 54%     54% 54% 51% 1%     3% 2% 1%
NV     35% 39% 40% 42%     60% 55% 58% 56%     5% 6% 2% 2%
OH 47% 48%     46% 45% 50% 50%     52% 53% 3% 2%     2% 2%
OR     34% 33% 50% 52%     64% 66% 49% 47%     2% 1% 1% 1%
WV     46%   57% 60%     49%   40% 38%     5%   3% 2%
WI 53%       42% 46% 44%       56% 53% 3%       2% 1%

Key Takeaways:

  • Democrats can only lose 2 seats and still retain the majority.
    • Races out of reach for Dems: West Virginia
    • Races out of reach for Republicans: Nevada, Georgia, (Ohio likely also falls into this category because of how expensive campaigning is here.)
  • Republicans have been narrowing the gap across the board.
  • Democrats must win 3/4 of the tight races:
    • Oregon (-5%)
    • Arizona (+1%)
    • Maryland (+3%)
    • Wisconsin (+7%)
  • Conclusions: The Democrats can lose in Oregon and still retain the majority, but this is absolutely not the time to be celebrating. The Senate majority will likely come down to the re-election of Mark Kelly in Arizona who would be the most obvious target by national Republicans. Joe Manchin's goose is cooked, the DNC should give up on this race immediately.
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2022 Election Polls (October)

 

Arizona
McGuire 50%
Kelly 50%
Generic I 0%

 

Georgia
Kingston 43%
Warnock 56%
Generic I 1%

 

Maryland
Hogan 49%
Van Hollen 49%
Generic I 2%

 

Nevada
Laxalt 43%
Cortez Masto 56%
Generic I 2%

 

Ohio
Mandel 46%
Ryan 52%
Generic I 2%

 

 

Oregon
Skarlatos 55%
Wyden 45%
Generic I 0%

 

West Virginia
Fitzgerald 60%
Manchin 38%
Generic I 2%

 

Wisconsin
Walker 46%
Barnes 53%
Generic I 1%
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Republican Democrat Independent
6/10 (Fox) 7/1 (ANN) 8/31 (Fox) 9/10 (ANN) 9/30 (Fox) 10/7 (WaPo) 10/15 (ANN) 10/31 (Fox) 6/10 (Fox) 7/1 (ANN) 8/31 (Fox) 9/10 (ANN) 9/30 (Fox) 10/7 (WaPo) 10/15 (ANN) 10/31 (Fox) 6/10 (Fox) 7/1 (ANN) 8/31 (Fox) 9/10 (ANN) 9/30 (Fox) 10/7 (WaPo) 10/15 (ANN) 10/31 (Fox)
AZ     37% 42% 46% 49% 46% 50%     59% 56% 51% 50% 52% 50%     4% 2% 3% 1% 2% 0%
GA     44% 43% 42% 43%   43%     53% 53% 54% 56%   56%     3% 4% 4% 1%   1%
MD 45%     43% 44% 48%   49% 54%     54% 54% 51%   49% 1%     3% 2% 1%   2%
NV     35% 39% 40% 42% 40% 43%     60% 55% 58% 56% 58% 56%     5% 6% 2% 2% 2% 2%
OH 47% 48%     46% 45%   46% 50% 50%     52% 53%   52% 3% 2%     2% 2%   2%
OR     34% 33% 50% 52% 52% 55%     64% 66% 49% 47% 46% 45%     2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%
WV     46%   57% 60%   60%     49%   40% 38%   38%     5%   3% 2%   2%
WI 53%       42% 46%   46% 44%       56% 53%   53% 3%       2% 1%   1%

 

Key Takeaways

  • Oregon goes to the out of reach category for the Dems. This means they have to win all remaining seats.
  • It all comes down to Arizona, Maryland, and Wisconsin. The Republicans need to win just one of them to take the Senate majority. 
  • The Dems have a slight (but consistent) lead in Wisconsin. This would be the most difficult seat for the GOP to win (though certainly doable considering Walker has over $20m cash on hand than Barnes).
  • Arizona has been tightening for months and the latest poll puts each candidate at 50%. Both candidates have about equal cash on hand, so we expect a lot of national party leaders to be funneling money here. It may just be a case of the most money spent wins.
  • In a continuation of the weird trends against demographics, both candidates in Maryland are running neck and neck. While Hogan is an extraordinary Republican candidate for Maryland and a popular former Governor, it's been an uphill battle from the beginning. He's never actually led in the polls, and considering his "moderate" nature hasn't received as much support from right wing national Republicans (HmL Drake being the exception). Even if Hogan does in, he could prove to be a thorn in the sides of national Republican efforts to pass legislation even if they do take the majority (à la Joe Manchin). 
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