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2022 Election (Complete)


Bruce
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Mark Kelly Campaign Schedule (Turn 5)
Cheryl Gleaton consulting (10% more effective ads)

 

Rallies

  • x5 Rally targeting Moderate Liberals in Arizona
  • x1 Rally targeting SJW in Arizona
  • x1 Rally targeting Progressives in Arizona
  • x3 Rally targeting Environmentalists in Arizona
  • x4 Rally targeting Moderate Conservatives in Arizona
  • x3 Rally targeting Evangelicals in Arizona

Ads

  • x1 Positive Ad targeting Moderate Liberals in Arizona (0.25 hours; $6.6 million)
  • x1 Positive Ad targeting SJW in Arizona (0.25 hours; $6.6 million)
  • x1 Positive Ad targeting Progressives in Arizona (0.25 hours; $6.6 million)
  • x2 Positive Ad targeting Environmentalists in Arizona (0.25 hours; $6.6 million)
  • x1 Positive Ad targeting Moderate Conservatives in Arizona (0.25 hours; $6.6 million)
  • x2 Positive Ad targeting Evangelicals in Arizona (0.25 hours; $6.6 million)
  • x1 Negative Ad against McGuire targeting Moderate Conservatives in Arizona (0.25 hours; $6.6 million)
  • x1 Negative Ad against McGuire targeting Moderate Liberals in Arizona (0.25 hours; $6.6 million)
  • x1 Negative Ad against McGuire targeting Environmentalists in Arizona (0.25 hours; $6.6 million)

Total

  • 20 hours
  • $72.6 million
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Chris Van Hollen Campaign Schedule (Turn 5)
Ronald Petty consulting (10% higher starting affinity with SJW)

 

Rallies

  • x5 Rally targeting Moderate Liberals in Maryland
  • x3 Rally targeting SJW in Maryland
  • x2 Rally targeting Progressives in Maryland
  • x3 Rally targeting Environmentalists in Maryland
  • x3 Rally targeting Moderate Conservatives in Maryland
  • x1 Rally targeting Business in Maryland

Ads

  • x1 Positive Ad targeting Nationalists in Maryland (0.25 hours; $6.0 million)
  • x1 Positive Ad targeting Evangelicals in Maryland (0.25 hours; $6.0 million)
  • x1 Positive Ad targeting Business in Maryland (0.25 hours; $6.0 million)
  • x1 Positive Ad targeting Moderate Conservatives in Maryland (0.25 hours; $6.0 million)
  • x1 Positive Ad targeting Moderate Liberals in Maryland (0.25 hours; $6.0 million)
  • x1 Positive Ad targeting SJW in Maryland (0.25 hours; $6.0 million)
  • x1 Positive Ad targeting Progressives in Maryland (0.25 hours; $6.0 million)
  • x1 Positive Ad targeting Environmentalists in Maryland (0.25 hours; $6.0 million)
  • x1 Negative Ad against Hogan targeting SJW in Maryland (0.25 hours; $6.0 million)
  • x1 Negative Ad against Hogan targeting Progressives in Maryland (0.25 hours; $6.0 million)
  • x1 Negative Ad against Hogan targeting Moderate Liberals in Maryland (0.25 hours; $6.0 million)

Total

  • 20 hours
  • $66 million
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Mandela Barnes Campaign Schedule (Turn 5)
Ronald Petty consulting (10% higher starting affinity with SJW)

Rallies

  • x5 Rally targeting Moderate Liberals in Wisconsin
  • x3 Rally targeting SJW in Wisconsin
  • x3 Rally targeting Progressives in Wisconsin
  • x2 Rally targeting Environmentalists in Wisconsin
  • x4 Rally targeting Moderate Conservatives in Wisconsin
  • x1 Rally targeting Business in Wisconsin

Ads

  • x1 Positive Ad targeting Nationalists in Wisconsin (0.25 hours; $6 million)
  • x1 Positive Ad targeting Evangelicals in Wisconsin (0.25 hours; $6 million)
  • x1 Positive Ad targeting Business in Wisconsin (0.25 hours; $6 million)
  • x1 Positive Ad targeting Moderate Liberals in Wisconsin (0.25 hours; $6 million)
  • x1 Positive Ad targeting Moderate Conservatives in Wisconsin (0.25 hours; $6 million)
  • x1 Positive Ad targeting SJW in Wisconsin (0.25 hours; $6 million)
  • x1 Positive Ad targeting Progressives in Wisconsin (0.25 hours; $6 million)
  • x1 Positive Ad targeting Environmentalists in Wisconsin (0.25 hours; $6 million)

Total

  • 20 hours
  • $48 million
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Turn 5
Alek Skarlatos    
Submitted by: Jeff Young [+10% to fundraisers]
Ad, Positive, Environmentalists [$4.20m]
Ad, Positive, Progressives [$4.20m]
Ad, Positive, Mod. Lib. [$4.20m]
Ad, Positive, Mod. Cons. [$4.20m]

Rallies:
Nationalists x2
Evangelicals x1
Business x2
Mod. Cons. x3
Mod. Lib. x4
SJW x1
Progressives x2
Environmentalists x4

 

Total spend: $16.80m

Edited by Steven Andrews
  • Thanks 1

Gray Anderson [Nationalist/Texas, tycoon character]
Juan "Jack" Diaz [Nationalist, R-FL, @diazydios]
Jeff Young [Nationalist/Virginia, Campaign Consultant, +10% to fundraisers]

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Turn 5
Josh Mandel
Submitted by: Jeff Young [+10% to fundraisers]

Ads:
Ad, Positive, Mod. Lib. [$10.80m]
Ad, Positive, Mod. Cons. [$10.80m]
Ad, Negative, Mod. Lib. [$10.80m]


Rally, OH, Nationalists [x1]
Rally, OH, Evangelical [x2]
Rally, OH, Business [x2]
Rally, OH, Moderate Conservative [x5]
Rally, OH, Moderate Liberal [x4]
Rally, OH, SJW [x2]
Rally, OH, Progressive [x2]
Rally, OH, Environmentalist [x1]
Total Spend: $32.40, 19.75hrs

Edited by Steven Andrews
  • Thanks 1

Gray Anderson [Nationalist/Texas, tycoon character]
Juan "Jack" Diaz [Nationalist, R-FL, @diazydios]
Jeff Young [Nationalist/Virginia, Campaign Consultant, +10% to fundraisers]

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Turn 5
Adam Laxalt
Submitted by: Jeff Young [+10% to fundraisers]
Fundraisers:

Ads:
Moderate Conservative, Positive [$3.60m]
Moderate Conservative, Negative [$3.60m]
Moderate Liberal, Positive [$3.60m]

Rallies:
Nationalist x2
Evangelical x1
Business x3
Mod. Cons. x4
Mod. Lib. x5
SJW x1
Progressive x2
Environmentalist x1

Total Spend: $10.80m

  • Thanks 1

Gray Anderson [Nationalist/Texas, tycoon character]
Juan "Jack" Diaz [Nationalist, R-FL, @diazydios]
Jeff Young [Nationalist/Virginia, Campaign Consultant, +10% to fundraisers]

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Turn 5
Mick McGuire
Submitted by: Jeff Young [+10% to fundraisers]
Fundraisers:

Ads:
Negative, Mod. Cons. $6.60m
Negative, Mod. Lib. $6.60m
Negative, Environmentalists $6.60m
Negative, Environmentalists $6.60m
Negative, SJWs $6.60m
Negative, Progressives $6.60m
Negative, Evangelicals $6.60m
Positive, Mod. Lib. $6.60m
Positive, Mod. Lib. $6.60m
Positive, Environmentalist $6.60m
Positive, Mod. Cons. $6.60m
[Negs are vs Kelly, of course]

Rallies:
Nationalists x1
Evangelicals x3
Business x2
Mod. Cons. x2
Mod. Lib. x3
SJW x1
Progressive x1
Environmentalist x4

Total spend: $72.60m

  • Thanks 1

Gray Anderson [Nationalist/Texas, tycoon character]
Juan "Jack" Diaz [Nationalist, R-FL, @diazydios]
Jeff Young [Nationalist/Virginia, Campaign Consultant, +10% to fundraisers]

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West Virginia
Fitzgerald 59.01%
Manchin 39.52%
Generic I 1.47%

 

Total Votes
Fitzgerald 452,113
Manchin 302,748
Generic I 11,249

 

% Support
  Nationalist Evangelical Business Moderate Conserv. Moderate Liberal SJW Progressive Environmentalist
Fitzgerald 84.96% 66.90% 83.12% 50.38% 37.80% 29.10% 33.99% 35.43%
Manchin 14.59% 30.61% 14.81% 49.19% 61.47% 69.14% 61.61% 62.90%
Generic I 0.45% 2.48% 2.08% 0.43% 0.73% 1.76% 4.41% 1.67%

 

@TexAgRepublican

 

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Georgia
Kingston 43.62%
Warnock 55.37%
Generic I 1.01%

Total Votes
Kingston 1,733,573
Warnock 2,200,234
Generic I 40,034

% Support
  Nationalist Evangelical Business Moderate Conserv. Moderate Liberal SJW Progressive Environmentalist
Kingston 75.23% 57.87% 62.92% 59.23% 30.64% 18.81% 28.64% 3.64%
Warnock 22.87% 41.57% 36.22% 40.46% 69.07% 80.57% 70.75% 92.54%
Generic I 1.90% 0.56% 0.86% 0.31% 0.29% 0.62% 0.62% 3.82%

 

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Nevada
Laxalt 43.51%
Cortez Masto 54.99%
Generic I 1.50%

 

Total Votes
Laxalt 491,194
Cortez Masto 620,840
Generic I 16,974

 

% Support
  Nationalist Evangelical Business Moderate Conserv. Moderate Liberal SJW Progressive Environmentalist
Laxalt 80.97% 75.62% 76.02% 51.20% 33.55% 12.54% 22.42% 16.30%
Cortez Masto 17.97% 23.03% 23.14% 45.98% 64.14% 86.71% 76.84% 82.73%
Generic I 1.06% 1.35% 0.83% 2.83% 2.32% 0.75% 0.75% 0.97%

 

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Oregon
Skarlatos 58.19%
Wyden 41.19%
Generic I 0.62%

 

Total Votes
Skarlatos 1,106,043
Wyden 782,868
Generic I 11,754

 

% Support
  Nationalist Evangelical Business Moderate Conserv. Moderate Liberal SJW Progressive Environmentalist
Skarlatos 86% 82% 82% 64% 43% 35% 44% 46%
Wyden 14% 17% 17% 36% 57% 64% 55% 54%
Generic I 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1%

 

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Wisconsin
Walker 46.61%
Barnes 52.54%
Generic I 0.86%

Total Votes
Walker 1,488,494
Barnes 1,677,825
Generic I 27,315

% Support
  Nationalist Evangelical Business Moderate Conserv. Moderate Liberal SJW Progressive Environmentalist
Walker 83.00% 90.94% 71.67% 54.49% 37.92% 12.17% 22.77% 14.52%
Barnes 16.03% 7.93% 27.77% 44.16% 60.96% 87.36% 76.88% 84.90%
Generic I 0.97% 1.13% 0.56% 1.35% 1.12% 0.47% 0.34% 0.58%

 

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Ohio
Mandel 47.77%
Ryan 51.16%
Generic I 1.07%

 

Total Votes
Mandel 3,004,782
Ryan 3,217,877
Generic I 67,282

 

% Support
  Nationalist Evangelical Business Moderate Conserv. Moderate Liberal SJW Progressive Environmentalist
Mandel 85.53% 72.86% 69.57% 47.36% 29.17% 26.60% 32.23% 21.65%
Ryan 13.37% 26.06% 29.22% 52.17% 70.38% 72.43% 66.93% 75.11%
Generic I 1.11% 1.08% 1.21% 0.48% 0.45% 0.98% 0.84% 3.24%

 

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Arizona
McGuire 51.47%
Kelly 47.60%
Generic I 0.92%

 

Total Votes
McGuire 1,260,817
Kelly 1,166,098
Generic I 22,625

 

% Support
  Nationalist Evangelical Business Moderate Conserv. Moderate Liberal SJW Progressive Environmentalist
McGuire 80.26% 70.90% 83.99% 54.42% 32.75% 25.24% 24.12% 35.81%
Kelly 18.90% 28.59% 14.97% 44.13% 66.02% 73.83% 74.99% 63.68%
Generic I 0.84% 0.52% 1.05% 1.45% 1.22% 0.93% 0.89% 0.51%

 

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Maryland
Hogan 49.71%
Van Hollen 49.11%
Generic I 1.18%

 

Total Votes
Hogan 1,436,233
Van Hollen 1,418,863
Generic I 34,187

 

% Support
  Nationalist Evangelical Business Moderate Conserv. Moderate Liberal SJW Progressive Environmentalist
Hogan 67.73% 81.98% 68.28% 63.05% 46.07% 33.67% 42.51% 26.84%
Van Hollen 20.39% 17.03% 31.21% 36.71% 53.73% 66.05% 57.20% 70.60%
Generic I 11.89% 0.99% 0.51% 0.25% 0.20% 0.28% 0.28% 2.56%

 

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  • Bruce changed the title to 2022 Election (Complete)
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State Democrat Consultant Republican Consultant
Arizona Mark Kelly Cheryl Gleaton Mick McGuire @Steven Andrews
Georgia Raphael Warnock Barbara Barker Jack Kingston @SWMissourian
Maryland Chris Van Hollen Ronald Petty Larry Hogan @SWMissourian
Nevada Catherine Cortez Masto Cheryl Gleaton Adam Laxalt @Steven Andrews
Ohio Tim Ryan Barbara Barker Josh Mandel @Steven Andrews
Oregon Ron Wyden Barbara Barker Alek Skarlatos @Steven Andrews
West Virginia Joe Manchin Janice Adams Kyle Fitzgerald  @TexAgRepublican @SWMissourian
Wisconsin Mandela Barnes Ronald Petty Scott Walker @SWMissourian

 

The Republicans flip 2 net seats. 

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House election results:

House
Republicans 219 (+6)
Democrats 216 (-6)
Independents 0

 

 

  Republicans Democrats
Nationalist 47 (-4)  
Evangelical 48 (-3)  
Business 45 (-6)  
Moderate Conservative 61 (+11) 10 (-4)
Moderate Liberal 18 (+8) 47 (-5)
Social Justice Warrior   53 (+1)
Progressive   58 (+6)
Environmentalist   48 (-4)

 

 

Notes

  • Let's just address the elephant in the room first and foremost. @Huffines was pretty much a one man band keeping the Dems afloat compared to at least 4 active Republican players. Even though the Democrats lost the majority, Huff should be commended for his efforts. That's not to take anything away from the Republicans (HmL Drake @SWMissourian also did a stellar job). But let's be honest, the expectation going into the election was that the Dems likely would lose the majority and both sides may be valid in feeling disappointed with these results. 
  • During the last Congress, particularly in the latter half, the Dems utilized their advantage while they had it and brought forward a ton of liberal legislation that the base was ecstatic about. That's why we see the Dems picking up seats for Progressives and SJW voters. Environmentalists didn't really get a whole lot to get excited about, but overall things could have gone a lot worse for liberal voters last Congress.
  • Perhaps because of this, but more likely because the Republican leader is a moderate from New York, the Republicans picked up 19 moderate seats. Drake played his moderate cards well, getting his caucus to support some legislation (i.e., the PRIDE Act), and being unable to block legislation like a minimum wage increase. But with a net gain of 6 seats (and along with it a 3 seat majority), Republicans across the spectrum can be pleased with the results.
  • Going into the 118th Congress, the real question is whether the Republicans will be able to utilize their majority or if the more moderate members of the caucus will be a perennial thorn in the sides of attempts to pass partisan legislation. 

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